Why Pipelines Lie (and What to Do About It)
If your pipeline looks healthy but revenue isn't moving, you don't have a sales problem.
You have a truth problem.
Pipelines don't lie on their own — they lie because the system allows them to.
This is one of the most common issues in growing SaaS, ERP, and B2B technology businesses: lots of deals, lots of activity, lots of optimism… and very little predictability.
This article explains why pipelines lie, how it happens, and how to fix it.
The Illusion of Activity
Most pipelines look strong because:
- There are plenty of deals in "qualified"
- The team is busy
- Demos are happening
- Proposals are being sent
On paper, everything looks fine.
In reality:
- Deals sit in the same stage for months
- Close dates move every week
- Decision-makers aren't engaged
- Value is unclear
- No one is really in control
This is not bad luck. It is bad structure.
Why Pipelines Lie
1. Stages Are Vague
If your stages are:
- "Qualified"
- "Proposal"
- "Negotiation"
…with no clear entry or exit criteria, your pipeline is fiction.
A deal is only as real as the evidence behind it.
If reps can move deals based on gut feel, hope, or "good meetings", your pipeline will always be optimistic and inaccurate.
2. No Enforced Evidence
Real pipelines require proof:
- Confirmed problem
- Agreed value
- Access to power
- Defined decision process
- Agreed timeline
If these are not mandatory, your pipeline is a wish list.
Most teams forecast without:
- Confirmed budgets
- Decision authority
- Commercial value
- Customer urgency
That is not forecasting. That is guessing.
3. No Commercial Value Defined
If you cannot answer: "What is this deal worth to the customer in real dollars?"
…then you do not have a deal. You have a conversation.
Pipelines lie when:
- Value is assumed, not quantified
- Business impact is vague
- Justification is weak
Without agreed commercial value, deals stall — every time.
4. Forecasting Without Discipline
Many teams forecast based on:
- How the rep feels
- How long the deal has been open
- How much they want it to close
None of these predict outcomes.
Forecasting must be based on:
- Stage evidence
- Customer commitments
- Decision alignment
- Completed milestones
If not, your forecast is noise.
5. No Accountability for Stalled Deals
When deals:
- Sit in the same stage for months
- Have close dates pushed repeatedly
- Show no real progress
…they should be challenged or removed.
Pipelines lie when:
- Stale deals are tolerated
- Weak deals are protected
- Reality is avoided
Hope is not a strategy.
What Lying Pipelines Cost You
- Inaccurate revenue forecasting
- Poor hiring decisions
- Missed targets
- Burnt sales teams
- Frustrated founders
- Lost credibility with boards and investors
More activity will not fix this. Better structure will.
How to Fix a Lying Pipeline
1. Define Hard Stage Criteria
Every stage must have:
- Clear entry criteria
- Clear exit criteria
- Mandatory artefacts
- Evidence requirements
No evidence = no movement.
2. Enforce Commercial Value Early
Every deal must have:
- Quantified business impact
- Agreed value with the customer
- Documented justification
If value is not clear, the deal is not real.
3. Access to Power Is Non-Negotiable
If you are not dealing with:
- Economic buyer
- Decision authority
- Or true influencer
…you are not in a sales cycle. You are in a sales hope.
4. Run Proper Deal Reviews
Deal reviews should interrogate:
- Why this deal will close
- Why it won't
- What evidence exists
- What is missing
- What risk is unaddressed
Not "tell me the update". Tell me the truth.
5. Clean the Pipeline Ruthlessly
If a deal:
- Has no movement
- No evidence
- No urgency
- No access to power
It comes out.
Healthy pipelines are smaller and stronger, not bigger and softer.
Why This Matters
Most businesses think they have a lead problem. They usually have a truth problem.
Pipelines don't lie because people are dishonest. They lie because the system allows them to.
Fix the system, and the pipeline fixes itself.
Final Thought
A clean pipeline is uncomfortable. A lying pipeline is dangerous.
One leads to growth. The other leads to surprises.
Choose structure over comfort.
